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Michael Cembalest Takes Us to School
The Compound and Friends
The Fed's Expectations for Inflation Surprises
The markets are pricing in 150 basis points of easing over the next 12 to 18 months. That's where I think the markets may be off-site. The San Francisco Fed computes this estimate of true Fed tightening, which is the basis points of tightening plus the impact of the declining balance sheet. And they have now Fed funds rate above year over year inflation. If you believe core inflation is 5.1 or whatever they say it is, you're pretty much at parity now with where overnight money is.
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