Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine
80k After Hours
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Forecasters vs Subject Matter Experts
A question that i've seen kind of floating around recently, is this issue of kind of the dexpites of forecasters versus ties of subject matter experts. As you are goig through this, do you think that you would have been able to produce better forecasts if you'd pared up with some one who was knowledgeable about o ukrane and russia? A lot of it is the process with which you take to making your forecast, right? Obviously, having a forecast that is heavily rooted just in theory and into a very rigid world view will do poorly,. That is what expert political judgment said.
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