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The Importance of Forecasting the Economy in the Stock Market
The stock market will always be untreatable because it is a complex adaptive system. The best we can do as investors is to focus on individual businesses and their industry developments. So always remain humble. Otherwise, the market will humble you with the future.
Clay Finck chats with best-selling author, Gautam Baid. We cover the passionate pursuit of lifelong learning, how he achieved his dream of being a professional portfolio manager, why he puts the majority of his focus on high quality businesses, why India’s time has arrived, and much more.
Gautam Baid, CFA is the Managing Partner of Stellar Wealth Partners India Fund, a Delaware-based investment partnership which is available to accredited investors in the US. Gautam is also the Equity Advisor of Complete Circle Stellar Wealth PMS, a portfolio management service which is available to Indian citizens and NRIs globally. Both funds are modeled after the Buffett Partnership fee structure and invest in listed Indian equities with a long-term, fundamental, and value-oriented approach.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro
03:38 - Where Gautam’s passion for value investing and lifelong learning originated from.
07:07 - The realization that Gautam had to pursue his dream of managing money and investing in the stock market.
10:52 - The story of Gautam applying to over 1,300 jobs in the investment industry before landing one as a portfolio manager.
14:38 - How Gautam’s book got published by Columbia Business School and became an international best seller in seven countries.
18:43 - Gautam’s definition of a high quality business.
24:32 - Why Gautam allocates the majority of his portfolio to high quality businesses despite their richer valuations.
30:00 - The characteristics of a business that indicate it has high staying power.
31:06 - How Gautam identifies businesses that can earn super-normal profits.
34:04 - Gautam’s framework for selling stocks in his portfolio.
35:35 - The four stages of a company’s growth cycle.
37:14 - Why Gautam looks for opportunities in all areas of the stock market, including cyclicals, spin-offs, and special situations.
49:54 - Why it’s so important to think probabilistically instead of deterministically.
52:45 - Why forecasting the economy, the Fed, and interest rates is a fool’s errand for stock investors.
55:09 - Why humility is required to be a successful long-term investor.
59:17 - Why US-based investors should consider investing in Indian equities.
61:01 - Why Gautam believes that, “India’s time has arrived.”
64:51 - Long-term structural trends currently happening in India.
69:02 - Why Gautam believes that the incentives in the overall investment industry are broken.
72:40 - The differences Gautam has found between managing a fund and managing his personal portfolio.
75: 47 - Why lifelong learning is paramount to being a successful value investor.
76: 28 - How to create an environment that promotes learning.
78: 38 - Three investing and non-investing books Gautam recommends to our listeners.
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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