5min chapter

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How to be a data detective (Tim Harford)

Rationally Speaking Podcast

CHAPTER

Is There a Correlation Between Cigarettes and Lung Cancer?

There's just, there's so much wiggle room in what you can kind of get away with believing am. What it seems to me increasingly is that a reasonable person would conclude we have this very plausible mechanism by which cigarettes would cause lung cancer. There's always still at least a little bit of wiggle room where someone who is motivated to reject evidence ofa claim of causal link can say, well, you know, correlations are often spurious. Here's a bunch of examples. We're using abut th there's a nice example of the contrast between being in this motivated reasoning mindset and being outside the motivated reasoning mind set. And it's austin bradford hill, who,

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