Professor Richard Thaler, University of Chicago - When Somebody Would Fire Us, It Was Almost Always At Exactly The Wrong Time | #337
The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing
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PhD Project - How to Forecast Stock Returns for the Next Six Months
Some guysa duke cam harvy being one of them, have been doing a survey every six months of fortune 500 c f o and asking them to forecast the returns on the estimate 500 for the next year. If you look back over the history that they've been doing this survey, the realizations lie within their limits about a third of i and their forecasts are tally useless. And these are not just random people. These are the c f os of the world's largest companies. So ih've no idea what the market is going to do, and neither do you. But i think we can agree that expecting returns of 17 % real going forward is optimistic. A study i've
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