Hamas's Incentives and the Shalit Precedent

At 3:22 a.m. ET on October 7, 2023, Bari texted her producer: “Candace, there’s war in Israel.” At that moment, Hamas men still roamed southern Israel, and the details were far from clear. What we knew was that Israel had been attacked and that videos were beginning to make their way from Telegram to X: scenes of dozens of Palestinian terrorists breaking through the security fence and rushing into Israeli territory; clips of Hamas militants, with AK-47s slung over their chests, driving white pickup trucks through the streets of southern Israel; blurry videos of Israelis running for their lives in roundabouts and fields.

We had no idea what was about to unfold. We did not know yet that 251 Israelis would be kidnapped that day, including more than 30 children. We did not know yet that what was unfolding was the worst mass murder of Jews since the Holocaust—only this time streaming live on social media.

We immediately started bringing you firsthand accounts here on Honestly. You might remember a pregnant woman named Shaked told us about 11 family members who were taken hostage, including her niece, 3, and nephew, 8. Or how two survivors of the Nova Music Festival, Amit and Chen, watched the murder of their friends. We talked to a mother whose daughter was killed at the music festival. And a grandmother who hid in her safe room for hours with her 10-day-old grandson as terrorists shot at the door.

And we spoke to a father named Jon Polin, whose son, Hersh, was kidnapped. Little did we know that the entire world would soon know his name.

Anyone who bore witness to the evil of that day, and to the horrific tragedy of the war that has followed, prayed that the hostages—the living and the dead—would finally be brought home. For Israelis, that rallying cry—Bring them home—was at the center of their psyche, their longing, their hope for the last two years.

And then yesterday, 738 days later, the remaining 20 living hostages came home as part of President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan.

Yesterday, we spent moments throughout the day glued to our phones, tears streaming down our cheeks, watching the videos of these freed men running into the embrace of their mothers and fathers and sisters and brothers—and in some cases even to their little children—after more than two unimaginable years in Hamas captivity. 

As Matti Friedman wrote in The FP: “An unfamiliar mood spread like a shift in the weather: relief and optimism. . . . The Israelis who rallied over the past two years under the banner ‘Bring Them Home,’ and whose energies kept the hostages and their families in headlines in Israel and abroad through two dark and often hopeless years, allowed themselves to smile and cheer.”

We are under no illusions about what comes next. Yesterday began only phase 1 of Trump’s peace plan (Hamas still holds many of the deceased hostages, which is a breach of the agreement). And serious—perhaps intractable—challenges lay ahead. There are many, many outstanding questions. As Free Press Middle East analyst Haviv Rettig Gur said, “Everything that matters for Gaza’s future is in phase 2 and beyond.”

To try to begin answering many of those questions—and to reflect on this historic moment and what it means for Israel and the world—Free Press producer Rafaela Siewert hosted a livestream yesterday that we want to play here for you today.

She was joined by former Israeli ambassador to the United States Michael Oren; The Free Press’s Matti Friedman and Haviv Rettig Gur; and Nimrod Palmach, who ran into battle on October 7, 2023 of his own accord. And Siewert also speaks to Rachel and Jon Goldberg-Polin—the parents of Hersh Goldberg-Polin, who was kidnapped on October 7 and murdered in Gaza after over 300 days in Hamas captivity. Still, Rachel and Jon woke up every single day for the last two years and fought—in public and around the world—for the return of every last one of the remaining souls to come home.

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