Virginia as Most Likely Flip

Chuck Todd breaks down the political fallout as the government shutdown begins disrupting air travel—and both parties claim they’re “winning.” He argues that when politicians are upending people’s lives, no one is really winning. The conversation turns to Israel, where Prime Minister Netanyahu faces deepening domestic backlash and a loss of international allies. With 66% of Israelis wanting the war in Gaza to end and growing calls for Bibi’s ouster, Israel’s reliance on the U.S. has never been greater—or more politically divisive.

Chuck also examines how the Israel issue is surfacing in U.S. campaign politics, from Democratic primaries to GOP power plays. With Republicans clearing primary fields and Democrats facing scandals like Jay Jones’ in Virginia, both parties are wrestling with internal fractures—and the risks of clinging to power at any cost.

Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 governor’s seats most likely to flip parties, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Introduction

02:30 Government shutdown begins affecting air travel 

04:15 Both sides think they are winning the shutdown 

05:30 Congress created the conditions for regular shutdowns 

06:30 When you're disrupting people's lives, you aren't "winning" 

07:30 Israel's public support is eroding in the United States 

08:30 Under Bibi, Israel has never been more powerful and alone 

09:30 Israel alienated allies, incredibly reliant on the United States 

11:15 Partisan split between R's and D's over support for Israel 

12:15 Growing skepticism for Israel's actions in Gaza 

14:00 66% of Israelis want to end the war in Gaza 

15:30 Majority of Israelis want Netayahu gone after war is over 

17:00 Most Israelis goal is the getting hostages home, not eliminating Hamas 

18:15 Bibi is clinging to power to avoid accountability 

19:15 New ad in New Hampshire targeting Andy Beshear over support for Israel 

20:45 Tough to know how salient Israel issue will be in a Democratic primary 

22:45 Republicans are clearing primary fields across the country 

23:30 If Ken Paxton is nominee in Texas, the senate could flip 

25:30 Susan Collins is the only Republican that can win in Maine 

27:15 Dem voters tired of establishment that isn't winning 

28:30 MAGA gave Republicans most power they've had in decades 

29:30 If Jay Jones allegations in VA surfaced a month ago, he'd be replaced 

31:00 If elected, Jay Jones should resign and let assembly choose replacement 

34:00 Democrats playing with political fire with Jay Jones

36:15 Chuck's thoughts on interview with Adam Bonica 

38:00 Toddcast Top 5 - Governor's seats most likely to flip parties 

38:30 #1 Virginia 

41:00 #2 Kansas 

42:45 #3 Wisconsin, #4 Michigan 

45:00 #5 Iowa 

49:00 Ask Chuck 

49:15 Will there ever be amendments to prevent corruption in government? 

52:00 Does Trump think the public will believe misinformation about the economy? 

57:00 Should Democrats offer a "Project 2029" to offer a clear vision for change? 

59:30 How would you handle bad faith Republican arguments over shutdown?

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