In this episode Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs joins us to discuss his new book Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. Peter believes financial cycles are the primary driver of investor returns. He explains how each cycle consists of four phases with distinct characteristics in terms of returns, earnings growth and valuations. We talk about the structural changes that are creating headwinds for markets in our current super-cycle and how AI and the energy transition might help offset them.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:07 - Introduction to Peter Oppenheimer
04:59 - What do financial cycles derive from?
07:19 - What drives the cycles?
09:31 - A desynchronisation in the cycles
12:15 - Are we entering an optimism phase?
14:39 - Interpreting the signals
17:38 - Does Peter see room for interest rates to rise?
21:59 - What drives the high corporate profits in GDP?
26:54 - Are companies losing their margins?
29:17 - The potential of AI
31:54 - Can high energy consumption ruin the development of AI?
35:48 - Where will the investment in AI come from?
40:00 - Going full cycle
41:37 - The engines of growth
43:43 - Did the central bank response stop markets from becoming volatile?
48:13 - The role of central banks
51:22 - Getting out of a period of high debt
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