Is There a Low Probability of Success in a Project?

The way i think of this is sort of the reverse of global catastrophic risk ret whereas there's a low probability som cata, a catastrophe, happening. We also want to have the idea that if something is successful, it can actually have mass of payoff or avert catastrophe. I mean, one of my favourite scienceifiction authors, robert heinlin had an example of this in one of his juvenile novels called bread cast upon the waters. It's worth saying that an investment market's contrary to what no a lot of the economists would have belief, are actually quite fine with this. There's a whole history of people being prepared to speculate why large amounts of money should be spent on