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Inference Scaling, AI Agents, and Moratoria (with Toby Ord)

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Statistical Insights on AI Reliability

This chapter explores the statistical analysis of success rates in various trials, emphasizing the significance of the 50% success rate as a reliable benchmark. It examines the relationship between task duration and AI performance, investigating how shorter task capabilities don't necessarily correlate with longer task success and utilizing survival analysis to draw parallels with human life expectancy.

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