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Gut Instincts and Big Decisions, with Morgan Housel

Afford Anything

Challenges of Evaluating Predictions and Limited Data Sets

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The speakers discuss the difficulties of evaluating predictions and making decisions with limited data sets, using the example of an economist who has only experienced a few recessions in their career. They emphasize the need for a large amount of data in fields like meteorology and highlight the limitations of economic data, which has only existed since the mid-1940s.

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