4min chapter

Agile Uprising Podcast cover image

We're All Wrong About Little's Law w/Troy Lightfoot and Andy Cleff

Agile Uprising Podcast

CHAPTER

How to Use Dr. Little's Formula for Forecasting

Little's law is saying the average cycle time. And so really it's depends on how you define it, but it is true. So using a tool like this, Andy, I can even just mess around with my starting endpoints and it'll give me the cycle time for any two points. Even if Dr. Little did say you could do it, you wouldn't want to use an average anyway. But even he said himself that his formula is not to be used for future looking. It's only to be used retrospectively. The Flaw of Averages shows mathematically why when you use averages for plans and forecasts why it goes horribly wrong.

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