Rational soothsaying
Think with Pinker
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Is There Wisdom in Crowds?
In the art of a political commentary, in colonists, you can expect it, hope for it. Would we be better off if we used some of the techniques of rational forecasting in our own lives and in vacations? You know, i'm sure we would. When i teach judgment decision making, i say book, there's basically three to improve judgments and decisions. One way is to teach the normative theories, the principles of statistics, the laws of probability. Another thing is to learn about all the ways in which people make mistakes, the errors that they naturally a do. And the third way is to design the environment to be as conducive as possible to good decision making and accurate forecasting.
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