How AI Forecasts Have Shifted Over Time

All three forecasts were clustered together and all much earlier than the popular mood according to which it would never happen or might take centuries. In some sense, since transformative AI has not been invented yet, we cannot grade forecasts about it. But we can look at whether the same forecasters did a good job forecasting other AI advances,. Whether their forecasts are internally consistent, and how their forecasts have shifted over time. None of the three forecasting methods look great on these intermediate goals.