Gary Hui on shorting A2 Milk, why narratives lie & building deep research edge at Geometrica
Australian Investors Podcast
Intro
Mitchell introduces the episode, sponsors, and guest Gary Hui from Geometrica Fund.
In this Australian Investors Podcast episode, your host Mitchell Sneddon is joined by Gary Hui, portfolio manager at Geometrica Fund, a Sydney-based global long-short hedge fund. Gary doesn’t follow market narratives — he follows hard data. In this episode, Mitchell and Gary discuss: – Why narratives like founder-led businesses are often misleading – How Geometrica surveyed thousands of WeChat users & port data to short A2 Milk – Why ResMed’s fall was wrongly blamed on GLP-1s like Ozempic – The process of building a deep research edge using alternative data Topics Covered – Gary’s career journey: from JP Morgan to founding Geometrica – Why “good management” and “founder-led” are useless investing shortcuts – How Geometrica defines edge through logic, maths & raw data – Dissecting the A2 Milk short: port data, WeChat bots & channel stuffing – ResMed’s misunderstood GLP-1 narrative vs actual gross margin drivers – Building deep logic models and rejecting conventional wisdom – How the team finds asymmetric bets with massive skew – The role of volatility, balance sheet turnarounds & crowd psychology – Why some of the best shorts started as long ideas – How Gary views valuation as a proxy for popularity, not truth Episode Resources: Geometrica Fund case studies
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