How to Calibrate Your Confidence

There's a wonderful book that I read not long ago by a journalist named Catherine Schultz. She tells about how when people would ask what her book was about and she told them they would say, oh, you should write about me, I'm wrong all the time. What are you wrong about right now? And they didn't have an answer to that. There's a challenge at the heart of that story. And that is calibrating your confidence depends on appreciating all the ways in which you could be wrong. Sometimes will be wrong for reasons that we've just never imagined.