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Ep 128: Steven Pinker’s ”Rationality” Chapter 5 ”Beliefs & Evidence (Bayesian Reasoning” Remarks & Analysis

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Bays in Epistemology - The Probability of a Hypothesis

Bays's rule is rather simple. And as we will see at the end of the chapter, it can be made gut level intuitive. The great insight of the reverend thomas bays 17 o one, 17 61, was that the degree of belief in a hypothesis may be quantified as a probability. This is the subjectivist meaning of probability that we met in the last chapter. Call it prob hypothesis, the probability of a hypothesis, that is, our degree of credence that it is true.

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