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Byrne Hobart - FTX, Drugs, Twitter, Taiwan, & Monasticism
Dwarkesh Podcast
The Master Plan Was Not We're Going to Conquer All of Europe
In terms of how you figure it out in advance like i think some of it does come down to getting a sense of whether they're responding to circumstances or whether they actually have have a long-term plan. If someone like Alexander he basically just kept going until he couldn't go any farther until his troops were basically on the point of mutiny and then just turned around and went home. There's probably nothing more dangerous than a long- term plan that someone actually has the means to execute. The only thing that is actually truly novel thrill seeking fun opportunity is something like buy twitter and then turn it into you know what it is.
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