Frontline overview and ISW analysis

Day 1,422.

Today, as Trump is finally gifted a Nobel Peace Prize – just not quite the one he wants – we hear how Germany has denied a Russian shadow-fleet tanker access to the Baltic Sea, and assess Emmanuel Macron’s claim that France is now supplying two-thirds of Ukraine’s strategic military intelligence, as he and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni suggest the time may be right to begin talks with Vladimir Putin again. Plus, we discuss the findings of a major new report on the occupied territories, and bring you the latest updates on acts of resistance in those regions.

Contributors

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Lily Shanagher (Foreign Reporter). @LilyShanagher on X.

Gareth Corfield (Transport Correspondent). @GazTheJourno on X.

Francis Dearnley (Executive Editor for Audio). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Dr. Jade McGlynn (War Studies Department of King's College). @DrJadeMcGlynn on X.

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CONTENT REFERENCED:

Dr Jade McGlynn’s report on the Occupied Territories:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/thresholds-survival-resistance-occupied-ukraine 

Exclusive: Rail union boss sang pro-Russia chants in occupied Ukraine (Gareth Corfield in The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/01/16/union-boss-eddie-dempsey-sang-pro-russian-chants/

Uncovered: Secret room beneath Chinese embassy that poses threat to City of London (Gareth Corfield in The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/01/12/revealed-china-embassy-secret-plans-spy-basement/ 

Germany blocks Russian “shadow fleet” tanker from entering its territorial waters in unprecedented move (The Insider):

https://theins.press/en/news/288483

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