Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock, warns that markets are approaching a historic "blow-off top" with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 6,700-6,900 before a devastating crash. Using his business cycle model, he argues we've already hit the "Titanic moment" - where leading indicators have collapsed while markets surge to bubble extremes. Zeberg predicts this "Everything Bubble" will lead to a deflationary crash potentially worse than 2008, followed by a stagflationary period in 2026-2028. He criticizes the Federal Reserve for massive policy errors, focusing on backward-looking inflation data while ignoring consumer distress and housing market deterioration. Despite being long Bitcoin (targeting $150K-$180K), he warns it could crash 80% and sees parallels to subprime risks in corporate treasuries loaded with crypto.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia
Links:
X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg
Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/p/final-warning-the-emperors-new-clothes
0:00 Welcome Henrik Zeberg
0:43 Macro framework and business cycle model
3:29 Titanic moment explained
6:09 Blow-off top targets (S&P 6,700-6,900)
8:06 Trading vs investing in this environment
9:30 Market signposts to watch
11:21 Post blow-off top scenario
14:30 How sharp will the decline be?
18:00 Prediction markets showing 20% recession odds
18:54 Liquidity vs solvency problem
23:03 Federal Reserve policy errors
26:21 Fed credibility problems
29:11 What to ask Powell at FOMC
31:09 Will the Fed cut rates in 2025?
33:08 Bitcoin analysis and bubble concerns
37:30 Bitcoin as subprime risk
40:01 Gold outlook and inflation narrative
42:45 The "Everything Bubble" thesis
48:13 How to protect yourself
51:16 Final thoughts and where to find Henrik
