The Main Drivers of Equity Returns

The key driver of both bond markets, credit markets and equities over the last year and a half has been that rise in interest rates. We think interest rates have a little further to rise, perhaps a quarter of a point or so in the US, a little bit more than that across Europe. But they won't likely start to fall until perhaps the second quarter of next year. What's going to be crucial really is the driver moving forward is expectations about whether we can avoid recession.