The Complexities of Heuristics: Mental Shortcuts and Their Pitfalls

No matter our claims to the contrary, we are all biased in our perceptions and beliefs. But bias is not random and its directions relate to our evolutionary history and culture, especially to how these interface with human sociality. With us to decipher bias is Jim Zimring. Jim is the author of What Science is and How it Really Works, published by Cambridge University Press in 2019, and Partial Truths: How Fractions Distort Our Thinking, published by Columbia University Press in 2022. Today we discuss flawed thinking about fractions, the No True Scotsman Fallacy, what we see when we read, heuristics, stories vs. statistics, confirmation bias, the prosecutor’s fallacy, cherry picking, tautology, hindsight bias, the Bible code, the fine-tuning argument, armor on WWII bombers and the Anthropic Principle, and the reproducibility crisis.