What are the characteristics of superforecasters? How can a superforecasting team be developed? Hear from Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment, a leading global forecasting business based in NYC. Accurate forecasts from Good Judgment superforecasters have included the scale of the pandemic. In early 2020, Good Judgment superforecasters estimated the United States would have over 200,000 deaths from COVID-19 with 99 percent certainty, an estimate that was considered by many as excessive at the time. Warren gives show host Gene Tunny and his colleague Tim Hughes some valuable tips on how to become a superforecaster.
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What’s covered in EP176
- The Good Judgment forecasting business [2:41]
- What are the characteristics of superforecasters? [6:47]
- How to identify someone who is good at pattern recognition? Raven’s matrices [9:24]
- Link between subject matter expertise and forecasting ability [10:40]
- What are some of the techniques that are used to help super forecasters rid themselves of prejudice and bias? [12:57]
- How large does a super forecasting group need to be to be successful? [20:35]
- Tips for being a super forecaster [25:59]
- Using the percentages to retrospectively see how you’ve gone [27:56]
- Bayes’ Theorem [31:41]
- The importance of being open to a range of different views [42:47]
About this episode’s guest: Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment
Warren Hatch is Good Judgment’s second CEO, succeeding co-founder Terry Murray.
Before joining Good Judgment, Hatch was a partner at McAlinden Research, where he identified thematic investment opportunities in global markets for institutional investor clients. Previously, he co-managed a hedge fund seeded by Tiger Management and was a portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley.
Hatch holds a doctorate in politics from Oxford, a masters in Russian and international policy studies from Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and a bachelors in history from the University of Utah. He is also a CFA® charterholder.
Links relevant to the conversation
Good Judgment’s website and Twitter:
https://goodjudgment.com/ and https://twitter.com/superforecaster?lang=en
BBC Reel featuring Warren Hatch:
https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p0dwntct/can-you-learn-to-predict-the-future-
Warren’s talk on YouTube which Gene quotes from in the episode:
What is Superforecasting? - Warren Hatch, Good Judgement
Article by Nicholas Gruen:
Making better economic forecasts
Links regarding foxes versus hedgehogs:
https://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-better-forecasters-than-hedgehogs/
https://goodjudgment.com/the-cost-of-overconfidence/
Credits
Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au.
Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.
