Introduction

The signals are telling me to watch the Chinese reopening closely. What we see right now is a market betting on a grand reopening of China, but I'm not so sure that this would be a straightforward conclusion for the months ahead. NFIB survey revealed that small caps in the US plan on increasing prices to a much smaller extent than last year. On historical correlations, the NFIB survey now points to inflation around 3% in roughly six months from now. This is a material game changer relative to the inflation outlook from 2022. And it means that you should tilt towards bonds rather than equities.