4min chapter

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How to Select a (Good) Financial Advisor (EP.162)

The Rational Reminder Podcast

CHAPTER

The Consistent Relationship Between Forecasts and Outcomes

There's no consistent relationship between forecasts and outcomes to it's pretty noisy. For cases where there is a marginally significant relationship, roughly as many countries are significantly negative as are significantly positive. Investors don't know the long term mean reverting returns which returns will revert over time. And then you take the hind sit bias away, and it doesn't go away completely in the us. He's got two papers talking about this: lubosh pastor and dimps ond martian stanton were looking at predictability globally for longer data series.

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