Is the Approval Ratio a Predictor of the 2020 Election?

I was listening to you and your author, John Sides, on Ezra Klein's podcast the weekend before the election. You guys had said that one of the strongest predictors of what ended up happening in 2020 was President Trump's approval rating. And then I think Ezra asked John, like, well, Biden's approval rating is pretty terrible right now. And sure enough, that wasn't the polls being wrong. The fluctuations are coming from the in party. They start very high always. For Trump, the Republicans just hung out there really high on the ceiling. But what's happening is Democrats and independents now are providing that variation. So maybe this is one of the ways you can, you