The El Farol problem
Simplifying Complexity
00:00
The Inductive Model of Predicting
Economics was standardized on saying, you know, people are perfectly logical. And everybody's identical and suddenly I was confronted by a situation that if that were true, that would self negate. There can be no such solution that that it would be a problem that you would have to do with the problem. Around 1992 I started to think harder about all of this, and I was learning the program at the time in the language see this is 30 years ago. So each agent had several, let's say half a dozen different little forecasting machines,. They would watch and keep count of which ones were accurate, and they would act upon the most accurate ones.
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