3min chapter

Simplifying Complexity cover image

The El Farol problem

Simplifying Complexity

CHAPTER

The Inductive Model of Predicting

Economics was standardized on saying, you know, people are perfectly logical. And everybody's identical and suddenly I was confronted by a situation that if that were true, that would self negate. There can be no such solution that that it would be a problem that you would have to do with the problem. Around 1992 I started to think harder about all of this, and I was learning the program at the time in the language see this is 30 years ago. So each agent had several, let's say half a dozen different little forecasting machines,. They would watch and keep count of which ones were accurate, and they would act upon the most accurate ones.

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