NFL Season Projections and Metrics

Scott Seidenberg, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL. The guys get you ready for the preseason and much more.

🎯 Offensive Rankings: Buffalo leads projected scoring at 26.9 PPG, Cleveland last at 19.1 PPG.

📊 Schedule Difficulty: Browns, Giants, Eagles, Lions, Chiefs face the toughest opposing offenses, while 49ers, Patriots, Titans, Bills, and Bucs have the softest.

📈 YPP Insights: Chiefs, Steelers, Rams posted negative YPP differentials despite double-digit wins — a sign of potential regression.

🔍 Undervalued Teams: Packers (+1.0 YPP) and Titans (-0.2 YPP) are undervalued versus public perception.

📉 Rest Disadvantage Bets: Since 2021, teams with rest disadvantages are 200-184-6 ATS, outperforming expectations.

⏳ Short Week Thursday Games: Road teams on 3-day rest are just 6-11 ATS (2023) — major fade spots.

💡 Fezzik’s Picks:

• Packers -1.5 vs. Commanders (Week 2).

• Steelers -1.5 vs. Seahawks (Week 2).

🏈 College Football Playoff: Likely 3–4 Big Ten teams; Fezzik/Scott debate over/under 3.5.

🔒 College Bet: Ohio State under 10.5 wins (load management and tough schedule).

🏙 Vegas Decline: Cited high resort fees, F1 construction issues, and nationalized sports betting reducing Vegas’ exclusivity.

• Market-Based Offensive Rankings (0:04–10:25): Scott explains creating offensive power rankings by dividing teams’ projected total points by 17 games. Buffalo (26.9 PPG), Ravens (26.6), Bengals (26.2) top the list, with Cleveland (19.1) at the bottom.

• Strength of Schedule Analysis (11:19–15:04): Using these offensive power ratings, they rank team schedules. Cleveland, Giants, Eagles, Lions, Chiefs face the toughest, while 49ers, Patriots, Titans, Bills, Bucs face the easiest.

• Fantasy Implications (12:01–13:50): Fezzik recommends using these rankings for drafting defenses, targeting teams playing the lowest-scoring projected opponents.

• Fezzik’s YPP Takeaways (25:12–28:08): He notes that Chiefs, Rams, Steelers had negative YPP differentials despite strong records — suggesting overperformance in close games.

• Regression Forecasting (28:09–30:14): Mackenzie highlights that Kansas City outperformed win-share projections by 2.5 games, historically leading to underperforming the next year.

• Rest Disadvantage Insights (36:15–42:12): Scott reveals that teams with rest disadvantages are covering spreads, likely due to market over-adjustment.

• Thursday Short Week Data (43:21–44:13): Road teams playing on 3 days rest on Thursday are 6-11 ATS, reinforcing the fade strategy.

• Best Bets Shared (45:12–48:46): Fezzik recommends Packers -1.5 vs. Commanders and Steelers -1.5 vs. Seahawks, citing travel and rest factors.

• College Football Outlook (50:01–56:53): They debate Big Ten playoff representation (over/under 3.5 teams) and Scott gives a best bet: Ohio State under 10.5 wins.

• Vegas Tourism Decline (1:01:29–1:11:58): The group attributes lower occupancy and visitation rates to construction (F1), rising fees, and expanded sports betting access nationwide.

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