Against Bayesianism — David Deutsch
The Joe Walker Podcast
Predictability Is a Matter of Taste.
How could people in the past have known ex ante that there seemingly static circumstances endowed them with this predictive power without extrapolating their circumstances forward? Almost all civilizations that have ever existed have been static until they were destroyed, either by e nature or by other humans. So whether you call that reliability of prediction or not, it is a matter of taste. It depends how you, how how you calebrate predictability.
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