Jahangir Aziz and Katie Marney discuss sluggish EM capital flows against a backdrop of trade uncertainty, risks to global growth, elevated treasury yields, and a weaker dollar. EM capital flows have been languishing and shifting in composition since about 2015. Hopes that a weaker US dollar would break EM capital flows out its malaise have not been fulfilled. We explore our finding that dollar’s influence as a push factor for EM investment flows has been waning, while US Treasury yields matter more. EM also needs to offer a sufficient growth pick-up to pull in flows. We also discuss China’s role as an attractor or substitute for broader EM capital flows. Greater macro stability for many EMs have also necessitated lower capital flows and enabled EM to face three big economic and funding shocks over the last 5 years.
Speakers:
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Jahangir Aziz, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on July 29, 2025.
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