Exploring the challenges experts face in predicting outcomes in complex systems compared to structured environments. From macroeconomic forecasting to microeconomic analysis, the chapter discusses the use of pattern recognition, decision aids, and historical performance in investment decision-making. It also delves into the role of intuition and cognitive biases in pattern recognition within various domains like sports and investing.
Michael Mauboussin is the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, a $70 billion equity manager. Michael is renowned for his ability to articulate important investment concepts backed by academic research. His first of three prior conversations on the show is replayed in the feed. You can find the rest at capitalallocators.com.
Our conversation explores Michael’s most recent piece on pattern recognition, including when it works and when it doesn’t. We then transition to discussing the changing nature of public markets, inspired by another of Michael’s recent research reports entitled Birth, Death, and Wealth Creation.
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