Rationality, Base Rates, and AI Risk

Bryan Caplan is a professor of economics at George Mason University, research fellow at the Mercatus Center, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, writer at EconLib and Bet On It, and best-selling author of eight books, including You Will Not Stampede Me: Essays on Non-Conformism, the subject of this episode.

0:00 - Intro

2:04 - The Next Crusade

3:44 - Moderating X

6:11 - Inventing Slippery Slopes

8:04 - Right-Wing Antiwokes

10:20 - Nonconformism and Asperger’s

12:02 - Making society less conformist

16:44 - The rationality community

20:30 - Polyamory

23:28 - Caplan vs. Yudkowsky on methods of rationality

26:40 - Updating on AI risk

29:35 - Checking your nonconformity

31:10 - Making LinkedIn not suck

33:53 - The George Mason economics department

38:35 - Does tenure still matter?

40:03 - Improving education

46:50 - Should people living under totalitarianism conform?

49:30 - Natalism and birth rates in Israel

51:19 - Hedonic adaptation in the age of AI

53:52 - Should we abolish the FDA?

57:15 - Being a prolific writer

1:00:30 - Bryan’s writing advice

1:02:35 - Outro

Bryan’s Twitter: https://x.com/bryan_caplan

Bryan’s Blog, Bet On It: https://www.betonit.ai/

Buy You Will Not Stampede Me: https://www.amazon.com/You-Will-Not-Stampede-Non-Conformism/dp/B0CQPJ6DCT/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&dib_tag=se&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.95bGnREBhOREb8kL8JeVpjT4w1MPCEfRYcUNZuMAEHVdVGJYv9Ns80cVoAGLtZJPOA6b5DTvnMfO6tF6ZAfRybM2TL7EtaHQlsvbOZVOZro.EzrhsuVDhljbtjiqE_YqD9_RP0YXHFyVHMYEu9GOviI&qid=1708877990&sr=8-1

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