Can You Tell When You’re in a Bubble?

Today we’re sharing a feed drop from Cheeky Pint, where Stripe cofounder and president John Collison chats with legends in technology over a pint of Guinness.

In this episode, John is joined by a16z cofounder Marc Andreessen and tech investor Charlie Songhurst for a candid conversation about bubbles, downturns, and the psychology of markets. They discuss what makes Silicon Valley so hard to replace, the deep history of the Valley’s ecosystem, and the future of media. From the lessons of the dot-com crash to the future of venture capital and startups, this is an inside look at how big cycles shape innovation and what it takes to build on the frontier.

Timecodes: 

0:00 Introduction 

1:56 Marc Andreessen’s early internet stories

3:10 Silicon Valley, risk, and downturns

8:30 Marc Andreessen’s early internet days

11:52 Investing across cycles

16:30 Can you tell when you’re in a bubble?

19:10 Trust, high-status VCs & preferential attachment

27:00 Venture capital, startups, and investment cycles

33:34  East Coast vs. West Coast: risk and culture

44:00 High trust culture in Silicon Valley

50:00 Why Silicon Valley, not Boston or Europe?

55:00  Company tragedies and missed opportunities

1:00:00 The internet boom, bubbles, and AI parallels

1:15:00 AI’s impact: productivity, jobs, and society

1:35:00 Crypto, stablecoins, and fintech

1:50:00 Public vs. private markets & venture strategy

2:00:00 Big companies, competition, and bureaucracy

2:05:00 Boards, governance, and the Elon Musk method

Resources: 

Watch more episodes from Cheeky Pint: https://www.youtube.com/@stripe

Listen to Cheeky Pint on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cheeky-pint/id1821055332

Find John on X: https://x.com/collision

Find Charlie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/charlessonghurst/

Follow Marc on X: https://x.com/pmarca

Marc’s Substack: https://pmarca.substack.com/ 

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Find us on X: https://x.com/a16z

Find us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z

This information is for general educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any investment or financial product. Any investments or portfolio companies mentioned, referred to, or described in this podcast are not representative of all a16z investments and there can be no assurance that the investments will be profitable or that other investments made in the future will have similar characteristics or results. A list of investments made by a16z is available at https://a16z.com/investment-list/. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of capital.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance. Before making decisions with legal, tax, or accounting effects, you should consult appropriate professionals. Information is from sources deemed reliable on the date of publication, but a16z does not guarantee its accuracy.

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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