3min chapter

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Prof Scott Cederburg: Long-Horizon Losses in Stocks, Bonds, and Bills (EP.224)

The Rational Reminder Podcast

CHAPTER

Do You Think Stocks Will Get Riskier Over Long Horizons?

In the US right now, you look at lagged inflation versus where the short-term rates are. In a low interest rate environment, you're just not going to make positive real returns on bills even over a long horizon. So based on all of your work, do you think stocks get risky or safer over long horizons? Yeah, I think objectively they do seem to get safer. Your lost probabilities are dropping as the horizon grows, and we seem to be seeing that pretty good evidence of that.

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