Outside View or Anecdote? The Right Answer is Both
Developer Tea
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Is There a Base Rate?
If we only look at a specific experience and try to generalize that to all our other ex riences, we're going to experience the pain ofof thi second argument here. It's critical that we understand this basic concept, the underlying statistical cept here, as seeking a base rate. What happens in cases like this? What happens in the broader population? Or when events like this one, occur, how can we compare this thing to another thing? Are we actually experiencing the base case, or is this an anomalous event? We must inspect what happens. We must learn from iteration, but we can't look at events in isolation and imagine that we are immune to anomaly.
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