How Do Prediction Markets Inform Institutions?

Arthur Hayes & Tom Lee map the new crypto arms race—Hyperliquid vs Aster, Plasma’s stablecoin rails, and ETH’s DAT-fueled supercycle.

Welcome to The Chopping Block – where crypto insiders Haseeb Qureshi, Tom Schmidt, Tarun Chitra, and Robert Leshner chop it up about the latest in crypto. Live at Token2049 Singapore, we’re joined by Arthur Hayes (Maelstrom) and Tom Lee (Bitmine) to map two battles shaping the next cycle: the Perp DEX war—Hyperliquid’s moat vs. CZ-linked Aster, zero-fee experiments like Lighter, and whether ~$500M/year token unlocks can stay “bullish”—and the race to own stablecoin rails, from Tether-affiliated Plasma’s zero-fee USDT chain to distribution plays like Tempo and Codex. We dig into DATs, mNAV compression, and Tom’s “ETH supercycle,” plus prediction markets (Polymarket vs. Kalshi) crossing into the mainstream and a surprise Zcash revival. If crypto’s future is being decided in trading venues and in money itself, this is where the battle lines get drawn. 

Show highlights🔹 Perp DEX wars — Hyperliquid vs Aster: Binance-linked Aster surges as Hyperliquid’s moat is stress-tested; CEX tie-ups (Bybit–ApeX, Coinbase–Avantis) escalate the fight.

🔹 Arthur Hayes on Hyperliquid: 126x call but sold ahead of ~$500M/yr token unlocks (starting November); “bullish unlocks” depend on sustained dominance + real fees.

🔹 Lighter’s zero-fee perps: Can post-airdrop volume stick, or do profits migrate to HLP/LLP vault strategies as fees compress?

🔹 DATs & ETH “supercycle” — Tom Lee (Bitmine): Communications flywheel, mNAV compression, ~70 ETH DATs with many below NAV; consolidation/unwinds/ETF conversions amid SEC/Nasdaq scrutiny and ZeroG controversy.

🔹 Plasma stablecoin chain (Tether-affiliated): Zero-fee USDT transfers, heavy incentives, Binance Earn distribution—are flows durable vs Ethereum/Tron?

🔹 Prediction markets — Polymarket vs Kalshi: South Park moment; funds cite PMs for shutdown/Fed odds; 2024 election accuracy pushes PMs mainstream.

🔹 Privacy coins & Zcash revival: ZEC rally, Monero 51%-attack mention, and the ongoing listings/compliance tug-of-war.

🔹 Stablecoins to $4T? — Tom Lee: Micropayments + 24/7 rails expand TAM across multiple chains, not just Ethereum.

Hosts⁠

Disclosures⁠

⭐️Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly
⭐️Tom Schmidt, General Partner at Dragonfly 

⭐️Tarun Chitra, Managing Partner at Robot Ventures

Guest

⭐️ Arthur Hayes, CIO at Maelstrom

⭐️Tom Lee, CIO of Fundstrat Capital & Chairman of Bitmine

Timestamps

00:00 Intro

01:15 Token 2049 Reflections

03:55 Tom Lee's Role in Ethereum

08:04 Challenges & Future of DATs

13:09 Plasma: Berachain for Stablecoins 

20:06 Perp Dex Wars & Hyperliquid

24:26 Fee Compression

29:59 Kalshi vs. Polymarket

39:52 Zcash & Privacy Coins

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