Texas Senate Race: Paxton vs. Crockett Dynamics

Jonathan Martin, the politics bureau chief and senior political columnist at POLITICO joins the Chuck ToddCast to walk through his bold predictions for the political landscape heading into 2026, starting with the idea that Donald Trump’s second term is less about governing and more about validation, legacy, and self-mythmaking. The conversation explores Trump as a pop-culture figure obsessed with monuments, family dynasty, and loyalty—rather than policy—along with why the country proved vulnerable to a political huckster in the first place. Martin breaks down why a Supreme Court vacancy could reshape the cycle, why GOP turnout may sag without Trump on the ballot, and which Senate races—from Nebraska to Florida to Ohio—could unexpectedly come into play.

The episode also looks ahead to the fault lines inside both parties: potential Trump family bids, early jockeying for the post-Trump GOP, and Democratic candidates who may help—or hurt—their own chances. Martin weighs in on foreign policy flashpoints that could define the next two years, from Iran to Venezuela to Trump’s transactional approach with China, as well as internal administration instability and cabinet shakeups. Plus, sharp takes on approval ratings, California’s unsettled political bench, why political dynasties still matter, and—because it wouldn’t be a Chuck Todd conversation without it—a few college football predictions to close things out.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:15 Of his 16 predictions for 2026, which ones stood out the most?

03:00 Trump’s second term is a victory lap, more about validation

04:00 Trump is obsessed with building monuments to himself

05:30 Trump doesn’t take the job seriously

07:30 Trump will likely slap his name on the memorial bridge

08:00 Trump is most like Teddy Roosevelt

09:15 Trump is more a pop culture archetype than a political one

10:00 The country turned out to be vulnerable to a huckster

10:30 Prediction of a Supreme Court seat coming open in 2026

11:30 Alito more likely to retire than Thomas

12:45 By October, it will be clear that senate is in play

14:00 Nebraska Dems cleared field for Dan Osborne

15:00 Trump not being on ballot could really suppress GOP turnout

16:30 Rumors that Don Jr. could run in Wyoming?

18:30 Folks in Jackson Hole with money always exploring political runs

19:15 Potential SCOTUS nominees if there’s a retirement?

20:45 The senate appointees from FL & OH get no traction

22:00 Paxton vs. Crockett would be a fascinating race in TX

22:45 Dems have a much better shot of winning in OH than TX

25:00 Biden could have cut deals with McConnell if government was split

26:15 Predictions on next country Trump hits with air strikes?

26:45 Regime in Iran could collapse in 2026

28:30 Netanyahu could be seen as most unstable force in middle east

29:30 Venezuela could become a huge political problem for Trump

31:30 In 1st term, leaks were about Trump, now they’re about cabinet

32:15 Kash Patel, Kristi Noem most likely to get booted from administration

34:30 GOP has political liabilities in Florida, senate race could be interesting

36:45 Could Jared Moskowitz be the wild card in the FL senate race?

37:30 Trump could be at 30% approval by Labor Day

38:15 Dem candidates that could hurt their chances by writing a book?

39:00 Without Covid, Buttigieg is likely the nominee in 2020

40:30 Newsom is easy to create a caricature of

41:30 Buttigieg is too smart to win in electoral politics

42:30 CA governor’s race field still doesn’t feel set

45:15 Swalwell can raise money, has backing from Pelosi

47:15 "Former mayor of SF” is a title that will sink you nationally

48:45 Ro Khanna avoids being associated with California

49:30 Which Republicans most likely to challenge Vance?

50:45 A Trump will be a candidate, Donald obsessed with family name in politics

52:00 Trump won’t just hand off his coalition to Vance

53:15 Trump wants to create a political dynasty

55:30 Trump will get cozy with China, then claim he averted WW3

56:30 College football predictions

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