Deciphering the Polling Puzzle

With Matt back from vacation, he and Brian discuss a bunch of important developments in the news, and zoom out to assess whether it’s really changed race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump:

* Has polling data improved enough to make Biden the favorite to win?

* Have developments like Biden’s patient victory in the fight over Ukraine aid, careful management of hostilities between Israel and Iran, and solid economic news contributed to the uptick?

* Is Trump’s legal jeopardy/farting finally taking a toll on his numbers?

Then, paid subscribers hear an assessment of the candidates’ upside or downside potential. Is Biden poised to benefit from a booming economy as inflation memories recede? Does Donald Trump have any way to improve his standing (as opposed to dragging Biden down)? Will Simon Rosenberg prediction that Biden would pull ahead by late April then widen his lead over the summer be vindicated? We hope you enjoy the conversation, and if you’d like to listen to the whole thing, you can upgrade to paid for a private feed that gets you access to the complete Politix archive and all future episodes.

Further reading:

* Brian on how a subset of reflexive critics, including progressives, have become economy deniers, and are holding Biden’s approval polling down.

* Matt on how negativity is making everyone miserable.

* Simon Rosenberg’s prediction, from Greg Sargent’s podcast.