Conservative Support Decline and Electoral Forecasts

The chapter analyzes the decline in Conservative voter support, particularly in areas they aim to defend, leading to forecasts that are unfavorable for the Conservatives. It delves into the intricacies of national polls, variations in polling data, and the impact of this decline on election forecasts, noting the rise in Labour and Reform votes. The chapter discusses the importance of understanding geographic concentrations of support, contrasts in vote share between safe seats, and the implications of potential electoral outcomes, including coalition possibilities.