“We want to create a system where incentives for prediction are transparent and clear to make good predictions. Furthermore, we want these predictions to be integrated into a consensus that we could all use and rely on if we weren't specialists in the topic.” - Robin Hanson

Today we will discuss prediction markets and the problems they may help solve. We’ll hear a brief introduction of what Prediction Markets are by Robin Hanson, followed by a discussion of a few current projects (Metaculus, Augur, Replication Markets), and finish with a rundown of the challenges ahead by Chris Hibbert of Agoric and Martin Koeppelmann of Gnosis.

This episode of the podcast is a special one, it features several guests speaking on the topic of prediction markets. They cover concepts, early prototypes, current (decentralized) applications, potential problems and future opportunities.

Speakers: 

Robin Hanson - George Mason University

Anthony Aguirre - Metaculus

Paul Gebheim - Augur

Thomas Pfeiffer - Replication Markets

Martin Koeppelmann - Gnosis

Chris Hibbert - Agoric

 
Session Summary: Prediction & Replication Markets, Augur, Metaculus, Gnosis, Oracle Problems, Beauty Contests - Foresight Institute

The Foresight Institute is a research organization and non-profit that supports the beneficial development of high-impact technologies. Since our founding in 1987 on a vision of guiding powerful technologies, we have continued to evolve into a many-armed organization that focuses on several fields of science and technology that are too ambitious for legacy institutions to support.

Allison Duettmann is the president and CEO of Foresight Institute. She directs the Intelligent Cooperation, Molecular Machines, Biotech & Health Extension, Neurotech, and Space Programs, Fellowships, Prizes, and Tech Trees, and shares this work with the public. She founded Existentialhope.com, co-edited Superintelligence: Coordination & Strategy, co-authored Gaming the Future, and co-initiated The Longevity Prize. 

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