When Might Humans Reach Mars?

Ars Technica space journalist Eric Berger joins Chuck Todd to unpack the new global race to the moon — and why it’s about power as much as science. With China poised to beat the U.S. back to the lunar surface, NASA’s Artemis program faces both technological and geopolitical pressure. Berger and Todd explore how space has become the next great stage for competition, where the first shots of a future war could be fired — not on Earth, but in orbit. From SpaceX’s dominance and Elon Musk’s influence, to Blue Origin’s lagging efforts and Boeing’s uncertain role, the conversation digs into who will actually shape humanity’s future beyond Earth.

They also discuss the growing role of private companies in both space exploration and weather forecasting, how AI is reshaping meteorology, and whether we’ll ever see space-based energy or asteroid mining become viable. It’s a sweeping look at how politics, technology, and ambition are colliding — in a sky that’s getting more crowded by the day.

Timeline:

00:00 Eric Berger joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:00 China is on track to beat the U.S. back to the moon

02:30 NASA is still pursuing the Artemis program

03:45 Both the U.S. and China are targeting the moon’s south pole

06:00 If you want to be a superpower, needs a presence on the moon

06:30 SpaceX’s Starship is best equipped for Mars mission

07:15 Best methods of propulsion for long distance space missions

08:30 The biggest reason for lunar landing is geopolitics/flexing

09:15 Treaty says that no country can claim ownership of the moon

10:15 How would a private company stake a resource claim on the moon?

11:45 Has low earth orbit gotten too crowded with man made satellites?

12:45 In the next big war, the first shots will likely be fired into space

14:30 Cooperation in space has diminished, become more nationalistic

16:30 Most countries forced to rely on US, Russia and China for space launches

17:30 UAE is developing space capabilities with NASA’s help

18:15 NASA can’t get to space without private contractors/SpaceX

18:45 Elon Musk is the most important person to spacefight globally

20:15 Blue Origin is far behind SpaceX in capabilities for lunar lander

21:00 Will Boeing’s space program ever deliver?

22:00 Will the first space hotel be in orbit or on the moon?

23:00 There’s very little demand for orbital tourism, very expensive

24:30 Mars missions are incredibly different, will likely be one-way to start

26:00 There are no resources on Mars worth the cost of mining and shipping back

26:45 The only reason to go to Mars is to make humans a space-faring species

27:45 Robots are far superior to humans for scientific research missions

29:00 There’s more water on Europa than Earth, life could be there

30:30 Best places in solar system for humans to possibly create bases

32:15 Is Bezos’s idea of heavy manufacturing on the moon a pipe dream?

33:30 Mining asteroids could provide all the metals we’d ever need

34:15 SpaceX’s Falcon9 rocket made cost of accessing space far lower

35:30 Are energy production advances the best way to sell space costs to taxpayers?

37:15 Space based energy production is far from being commercially viable

38:30 The Europeans surpassed the U.S. at meteorology 

39:30 Can AI tools help fill the gaps after U.S. cut funding for NOAA?

40:15 AI hurricane modeling seems to be just as good as physics based models 

41:15 Private sector still relies on the government for weather forecasting

42:30 We need better data collection for our weather forecasting

44:45 Private companies are hiring their own meteorologists

47:30 Microforecasting has gotten much better due to the internet

48:38 What does Ars Technica cover and what is its mission?

50:45 Do we know more about the solar system or the oceans?

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