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Markets Are Signalling A Recession Is Imminent | Eric Basmajian

Supply Shock

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The Decline of the Initial and Continued Jobless Claims Response Rate

The response rate has come down for a lot of different surveys. So when we look at the initial or continued jobless claims data, it's actual filings. The other important thing is that the seasonal adjustments for all economic data has been wildly distorted in the post-COVID period. Those often don't turn negative until the recession begins and there's some questions as to the reliability of that data.

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