2min chapter

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Fast and Frugal Time Series Forecasting

Data Skeptic

CHAPTER

How to Measure Complexity in Exponents Mothing Models?

The idea of a simpler model is very intuitively appealing to me. I think acam's razor is a good huistic but i'm curious how you measure simplicity. Maybeyu measure its inverse complexity? How do you know how simple or complex clar models are? In this particular case, we explore two different families of models - exponentse moothing and arema alsat arema. And our findings say that when it comes to yearly and quarterly data, a maximum order of one or two is enough to achieve the best performance.

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