
EP20: Prof Rob Hyndman: Forecasting COVID, time-series, and why causality doesnt matter as much as you think.
The Curious Quant
00:00
COVID-19 - What's Your Approach Been Like?
I'm on the panel appointed by the Australian government to help them forecast COVID-19 cases and we produce cases case numbers over the next six weeks for each state and nationally. We have a sophisticated version of the SEIR model which is sort of the most common one used in pandemic forecasting. I'm doing a quite simple time series model to add to the mix but my main role is to take all of these models and to produce an ensemble forecast from the wall so you know it's a pretty interesting time to be producing real time forecasts that turn into policy within a few days.
Transcript
Play full episode