Factors determining winners and losers in the chemical industry

As waves of new cracker projects come onstream first in China and then the Middle East, low demand growth means that 18m tonnes of older capacity could have to close globally by 2028 to maintain operating rates and margins. 

-          New wave of ethylene 2026-8 of 27m tonnes, driven by Middle East

-          To reach 85% operating rate by 2028, 18m tonnes of capacity could close

-          Equivalent to European ethylene demand in 2023

-          More trade barriers likely as regions try to protect industrial base 

-          Scenario of global depression has to be considered

-          Operating rates falling in all regions

-          Poor profitability will drive mergers & acquisitions (M&A)

-          Crude oil to chemicals (COTC) may revolutionise industry