Surveillance: The Fed & the Labor Market
Bloomberg Surveillance
00:00
Is the Fed Ready to Pause?
With the survey data on Friday, I have a three month moving average of non-farm payrolls of 286,000. That's job formation. Is JP Morgan saying that will break? Well, we have a forecast for 300,000 job games on Friday. So clearly, that's a pretty strong number even if it's a moderation. To get the Fed to pause, you need job growth to slow to at least 100,000 a month over the next two or three months.That is what's based on our forecast that the Fed by the first quarter sees that and is ready to pause.
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