3min chapter

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Vaughn Tan: On Risk and Not-Knowing

Interintellect Hostcast

CHAPTER

The Psychological Equilibrium of Risk Management

I think that a lot of times when EV analysis or cost benefit analysis is used inappropriately, it's to oversimplify things because people are overconfident in what they know versus what they don't know. So how much of it is just the psychological equilibrium of these institutions and their incentives versus it's this actual lack of knowledge or misdefinition? Yeah, I mean, I can't say, but my gut feeling is it's a combination of both of those things. But as you point out, there's also a huge problem of people worrying about seeming as if they don't have authority.

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