The Macro Compass: A Holistic Approach to Complex Macro Topics

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Investors could look to the countries and see if their US liability sides are in fact decreasing substantially over time rather than increasing as you would perhaps expect. There is a database that you can use to track that, and I also talked about it in the macro education series. The other thing is, yeah, if Brazil starts issuing renminbi, the nominated bonds, that is interesting, isn't it? Because that means that Brazil is not only choosing to transact with China in one, but also willing to lever up renminbi in one. So far there has been basically no indication of that,. A lot needs to change to make sure that this can become a more credible threat to the dollar

Rebecca Hotsko and Alfonso Peccatiello discuss the current market outlook, including the driving force behind the market rally, its sustainability, Alfonso’s prediction of a 0% rate cut by the Fed in 2024, and a whole lot more!

Alfonso Peccatiello is former Head of a $20 billion Investment Portfolio and now is the Founder and author of The Macro Compass, which is an investment strategy firm that provides financial education, macro insights and investment ideas.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro.

02:05 - His current market outlook, whether this recent market rally is sustainable or not.

10:43 - Why Alfonso expects the Fed to cut rates to 0% in 2024?

22:07 - How the long-term debt cycle works, what are the key factors that drive it over time?

29:27 - Why Alfonso believes we are in the very late stages of the long term debt cycle?

33:41 - What implications does this has economically, and for the financial markets?

34:02 - Will we see a period of deleveraging similar to 2008 and 1929 in the US?

41:11 - The difference between a period of deleveraging and a recession.

50:22 - His thoughts on the trend of de-dollarization, is a US dollar centric world over and are there any possible alternatives to this dollar central world?

54:49 - The Impacts that an economic downturn and de-leveraging would have on a US dollar based global system.

60:09 - Alfonso’s portfolio strategy and investment take-aways given his outlook.

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Related Episode: Listen to MI232: Understanding Quantitative Easing w/ Alfonso Peccatiello , or watch the video.

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