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No Clear Sign Of Recession Yet, Says Nick Reece
Forward Guidance
The Fed's Expectations for the Economic Outlook
Inflation is likely to peak very soon and the unemployment rate is likely to bottom. The high inflation in 1947 was based on post-war pent-up demand combined with a reorientation of the supply side away from the wartime economy towards the peacetime consumer led economy. That's a pretty good analog to the situation that we're in today. And if you look at inflationary spikes that coincided with market declines, what you notice is that the market tends to bottom within a few months plus or minus of when you hit the peak year over year rate of CPI. But I think we have to separate the inflation-related decline from the recession-related decline that occurred in that 1946-19
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