The winner's curse and 2024–2026 risk window

Is Australia heading toward a housing crash or are we simply entering the next phase of the 18.6-year property cycle?

In this episode of The Folio Property Podcast, Reece and Lachlan unpack one of the most talked-about questions in the Australian real estate:

Does the property market really move in predictable cycles?And if so… what does that mean for Australia in 2025, 2026, and beyond?

We break down the four phases of the cycle, the history behind Phil Anderson’s research, how the theory ties into US markets, and what happened in past downturns like the GFC. More importantly, we look at whether Australia is positioned for a fall, why speculation is rising, what the “winner’s curse” phase means, and whether everyday buyers should be worried or preparing for opportunity.

Whether you're an investor, first-home buyer, or simply curious about the future of Australian property, this is a grounded, data-rich conversation that cuts through the noise.

In This Episode You’ll Learn:

• What the 18.6-year property cycle actually is
• Why it's trending globally and why some people treat it like a “cult”
• The four phases every market moves through
• What happened from the 2007 peak → GFC crash → 2012 recovery
• How mid-cycle slowdowns occur (and why COVID fits the pattern)
• What the winner’s curse phase looks like and why 2024–2026 matters
• Why Australian markets didn’t fall as hard as the US during the GFC
• The truth about private debt, risk levels, and market vulnerability
• Why tangible assets like property often strengthen during downturns
• What smart investors do when markets dip

Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:11 Is the Australian property market going to crash?03:03 What is the 18.6 year cycle?05:59 The 4 phases of a property cycle08:55 Is Australia in major debt 11:57 The factors drive each stage of the property cycle14:07 Concerns on Self-Managed-Super-Funds (SMSF)17:45 What properties hold their value during a downturn18:54 When will the Perth property market slow down23:15 The biggest myth about property

Key Themes- Australian housing market- Global real estate cycles- Property investing fundamentals- Economic history & recessions- GFC vs Australia- Rising debt levels- Speculation risk- Market timing & long-term strategy

About the Folio Property Podcast

Each week, Reece Beddall & Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights, we make property simple, honest, and practical.

📍Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/📩 Contact Us: info@follio.com.au

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